It's 1974 all over again in the Car World

It’s 1974 all over again in the car world.

In the post-World War ll era, Americans thought cars were great. They improved every year, and by the time we hit the 1960s, we had it all: muscle cars--think Pontiac GTO, Hemi Cuda, and Boss Mustang--luxury cars like the Buick Riviera, Chrysler Imperial, and Cadillac Eldorado, and lots of other cars and trucks that we loved. People were happy.

Then around 1974 times changed (obviously, I don’t mean 1974 exactly, I mean the early ‘70s, but I think it’s useful to pick a specific year). 

The influential 1962 Rachel Carson book, “Silent Spring” and obvious pollution almost everywhere in the 1960s led to a push to decrease automobile exhaust emissions (remember the ubiquitous bumper sticker “Give a hoot, don’t pollute”?)

In addition, the Vietnam war claimed the lives of 50,000 teenage and twenty-something soldiers, and Americans became averse to more deaths among young people. Yet in the mid- to late-1960s many youths were dying or being injured in powerful muscle cars, so a push for less powerful and safer cars developed. 

Then, the 1974 OPEC oil embargo led to increasing gas prices, which in turn sparked a desire for more fuel efficient cars.

All of that led to what I would call a decade of chaos: 1974 to 1984 is best described as America saying, in essence, “we don’t know what we want, but we know what we don’t want: cars that pollute, are unsafe, and get lousy fuel economy”

During that ten year period of Americans deciding what they didn’t want, we saw the death of the muscle car, the decline of the large American luxury car, the rise of fuel efficient imported cars like the Volkswagen Rabbit and Honda Civic, and the introduction of lots of weird cars, like the AMC Pacer, Ford Pinto, Chevy Vega, Subaru Brat, and the DeLorean.

Then right around 1984, fuel economy became less crucial thanks to increased availability of oil from non-OPEC sources, catalytic converters and other advances had dramatically reduced tailpipe emissions, and anti-lock brakes and airbags had improved safety significantly.

Once we got all of that, U.S. car buyers finally figured out what we wanted: Japanese quality and German driving feel. 

As a result, the 1980s saw Mercedes E-class, S-class, SL, as well as BMWs like the 3-series and 5-series from that era basically sell out, and it was the same for the Honda Accord, Civic, Toyota Corolla, and other Japanese models. The birth of Acura, Lexus, and Infiniti in the late ‘80s and early ‘90s was the capstone of that movement.

The automotive era of “Japanese quality, German driving feel, and ever-improving fuel economy and emissions” extended from roughly 1984 to probably five or so years ago, which means we enjoyed around 40 years of being relatively happy with our cars, just like we were from the end of World War ll until 1973.

Interestingly, during the period from 1984 - 2024 we experienced a second muscle car era, although this time it included Mercedes AMG models, BMW M-models, and Audi RS-cars in addition to American classics like the Ford Mustang GT, Dodge Challenger Scat Pack, and Chevrolet Camaro SS.

We also saw the rise of new market segments such as luxury SUVs, like the Cadillac Escalade, Mercedes GLS, Porsche Cayenne, and others, which mirrored the popularity of American luxury sedans in the post-WWll period. And we observed the rise of uber-luxury cars like Bentley, Rolls-Royce, Range Rover, and Aston Martin. During this period those brands all grew and set sales records.

Again people, until maybe just a few years ago, were generally happy with their vehicles. However, as was the case in the years leading up to 1974, times have been changing.

For starters, we live increasingly virtual lives. Since the iPhone was introduced in 2007, and especially since the advent of social media, we have increased the time we spend with virtual friends as well as people that we don’t know but follow online. Think of your high school friends, for example. It used to be that we would write an occasional letter or phone call, but really we would lose touch. Now we have regular contact with some of them, or at least we follow those friends on apps like Facebook, Instagram, or TikTok.

Not only that, but we are now increasingly broadcasting our lives and thoughts, even our most personal and intimate moments, on TikTok or other platforms. And we consume more and more content produced by people we either know or want to know (or don’t know and don’t want to know).

That desire to consume and produce more online content is an important reason why so many people are less and less interested in driving. They’d rather be on TikTok or Instagram than behind the wheel.

There is also a general desire to put less CO2 into the air. The environmental movement is front and center now, just like it was in the 1970s, and people are increasingly uncomfortable with vehicles like the Ford F150, Mercedes GLS, or Cadillac Escalade, which produce and emit lots of CO2.

And there is a creeping weariness with the relentless reality of 40,000 or so Americans dying on our roadways every year. Despite herculean efforts by automotive manufacturers, government regulators, and worried parents, that figure remains stubbornly high year after year.

For all those reasons, I believe that the 2024 - 2034 era will be a period of chaos just like the years 1974 to 1984 were. Just like then, we don’t know what we want, but we know what we don’t want: vehicles that keep us away from our phones, emit CO2, and aren’t safe.

Going forward I think that we’ll see the rise of cars and trucks that produce less CO2, drive themselves, and are safer. I believe that performance internal combustion cars will die off completely – that’s already happening with the discontinuation of the Challenger, Camaro, and some V8 German performance cars. Similarly, I think that large internal combustion luxury SUVs and personal use pickup trucks that emit copious CO2 will fade away over the next 5-10 years.

Two important differences between now and 1974 will play a role in shaping the next decade. Cars last longer than they did back then, allowing people who are unhappy with their new vehicle choices to hold onto what they have for more time. And the advent of Uber and Lyft makes it easier to forgo car ownership altogether. We’ll see how those changes affect my prognostications.

Amusingly, just like 1974-1984, we’re already seen some weird vehicles. The weirdest, of course, is the Tesla Cybertruck, but the Cadillac Celestiq, Hummer pickup truck, Jaguar I-Pace (used by Waymo in their self-driving fleet, ironically), and others are also weird, and presumably more will be coming in the years ahead. I can’t wait.

So, I think that right now is a lot like 1974. We are not happy with our current automotive choices, we know what we don’t want but not really what we want, and we’re seeing some weird vehicles for sale. Where will the automotive world be in ten years? Who knows, but wherever that is, I think it’ll be a helluva decade.